Hochul leads Blakeman by 14 in Siena's final poll, 11 in Marist, days before Election Day

Gov. Kathy Hochul heads into the final days of the race for governor with a double-digit lead over Republican Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, in two new polls released this week.

A Siena poll released Wednesday puts Hochul ahead 54% to 40% among likely voters, up from a 50% to 41% edge in September. The survey of 807 likely voters was conducted Oct. 19 to 22, before early voting began, and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points. City & State reported that it is likely one of the last public polls in the race.

A separate Marist poll, conducted Oct. 22 to 25, has Hochul leading 53% to 42% among likely voters, with 4% undecided. Among all registered voters, her lead is 14 points. Blakeman disputed the Marist findings, saying the poll undersampled Republicans and that the race is closer, ABC7 reported.

Where the race stands

• New York City vs. the rest of the state: In Siena's poll, Hochul leads 67% to 23% in the city, while the two candidates are close to even in the downstate suburbs (49% to 47%) and upstate (49% to 48%), amNY reported from the results.
• Independents: Siena found Hochul ahead 51% to 40% with independents, a reversal from September, when Blakeman led that group. Marist, by contrast, has independents leaning toward Blakeman, 49% to 39%. Both are smaller subgroups with wider margins of error.
• Favorability: For the first time in Siena polling during her five years in office, a majority of likely voters, 51% to 45%, view Hochul favorably. Marist found both candidates underwater: Hochul at 41% favorable and 51% unfavorable, and Blakeman at 36% to 42%.
• Expectations: 68% of likely voters in Siena's poll and 71% in Marist's expect Hochul to win, including 40% of Republicans in the Siena survey.

Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in the release that Blakeman is "quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing."

Down the ballot

Siena also found Democratic incumbents ahead in the other statewide races: Attorney General Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39%, and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Joseph Hernandez 59% to 32%. Democrats lead 54% to 39% on the generic congressional ballot in Siena's poll and 56% to 42% in Marist's.

In New York City, Mayor Zohran Mamdani's favorability among city voters rose to 69% from 60% last month, amNY reported from the Siena results. Asked which candidate would make life more affordable, 30% chose Hochul, 27% Blakeman and 35% neither.

How to vote

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Early voting continues through Sunday, Nov. 1, and your early voting site may differ from your Election Day polling place. See our election guide and our earlier look at the five city ballot questions. Our Oct. 10 poll roundup has the earlier numbers.