Two new statewide polls give Hochul a double-digit lead over Blakeman

Two statewide polls released this week show Gov. Kathy Hochul with a double-digit lead over her Republican challenger, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, less than four weeks before Election Day on Nov. 3. Both also find independent voters leaning toward Blakeman, and a third poll shows how strong he is in parts of upstate New York.

Marist: Hochul up 11

The Marist Poll surveyed 1,361 New York registered voters from Oct. 1 to Oct. 4 by phone, text and online. Hochul leads Blakeman 53% to 42%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. Independents break for Blakeman, 49% to 42%.

The state's regions split sharply. Hochul has 69% support in New York City, Blakeman leads with 51% upstate, and suburban voters are divided, according to Marist. The poll also found a 29-point gender gap, with women favoring Hochul and men favoring Blakeman. Sixty-nine percent of registered voters said they think Hochul will be re-elected.

On the generic ballot for Congress, the Democratic candidate leads 55% to 42%. Forty-four percent of voters said their vote for Congress is mainly a vote against President Donald Trump, while 22% said it is a vote for him. Trump's job approval among New York registered voters is 38%, with 60% disapproving. Forty percent said their family finances had gotten worse over the past year.

Emerson/PIX11: Hochul up 12

An Emerson College Polling survey sponsored by PIX11 interviewed 900 likely voters from Oct. 3 to Oct. 5. It has Hochul ahead 52% to 40%, with 8% undecided and a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.3 points.

Hochul's lead rests on Democrats, who back her 84% to 8%. Independents favor Blakeman 55% to 34%, which Emerson executive director Spencer Kimball called "a notable contrast" with the pollster's other statewide surveys this cycle. Even so, voters are lukewarm on the governor: 40% approve of the job she is doing and 46% disapprove.

The Emerson poll also asked about the city. A plurality of New York voters, 47%, approve of Mayor Zohran Mamdani's performance and 41% disapprove, with younger voters much more positive than older ones. Voters named the economy as the state's top issue (34%), followed by housing affordability (17%), threats to democracy (13%), crime (12%) and immigration (10%). A majority, 56%, support Hochul's one-year moratorium on new discretionary state environmental permits for large data centers.

Siena: a different picture in the North Country

A Times Union/WPTZ-NBC5/WAMC/Siena poll of 496 likely voters in the 21st Congressional District, conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 6, found Blakeman leading Hochul 55% to 40% there, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 points. Republicans outnumber Democrats 49% to 28% among likely voters in the district, which Rep. Elise Stefanik is leaving.

In the race to replace Stefanik, Democrat Blake Gendebien leads Republican Anthony Constantino 46% to 42%, with 5% for independent Christopher Schmidt and 8% undecided, Siena found.