Trump's NYC Vote Surge: Democratic Decline or Republican Gain?

The 2024 NYC election results show a surprising trend: Donald Trump's vote share increased by seven points compared to 2020, reaching a higher percentage than any Republican since 1988. However, this wasn't solely due to increased support for Trump; it was significantly influenced by a substantial drop in votes for Kamala Harris, who received markedly fewer votes than Joe Biden in 2020 in every NYC neighborhood.

Key Findings:

• Harris's significant vote loss: Across all boroughs, Harris lost a staggering 573,600 votes compared to Biden's 2020 performance. This decline was six times larger than Trump's gains.

• Borough-by-borough breakdown:

<table> <thead> <tr> <th>Borough</th> <th>Harris Vote Change</th> <th>Trump Vote Change</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>All of NYC</td> <td>-573,600</td> <td>+94,600</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Queens</td> <td>-164,900</td> <td>+35,400</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Brooklyn</td> <td>-151,700</td> <td>+16,600</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Manhattan</td> <td>-120,900</td> <td>+17,900</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Bronx</td> <td>-111,000</td> <td>+23,800</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Staten Island</td> <td>-25,100</td> <td>+900</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

• Neighborhood-level impact: The most significant drop in Democratic support was observed in Borough Park, Brooklyn (-46%), while Woodhaven, Queens, saw a substantial increase in Republican support (+46%). Other areas with significant Democratic losses include Bensonhurst, Corona, and Richmond Hill.

• Income and demographic shifts: The lowest-income precincts experienced the largest drop in Democratic votes and the most significant rise in Republican support. Similarly, precincts with larger Asian and Latino populations saw substantial decreases in Democratic support, a trend potentially linked to concerns about crime, education, and the economy. Conversely, Trump gained considerable support in precincts with predominantly Latino and Black populations.

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Link to article detailing Asian voters shifting rightward